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From discussions with a friend about certain events in my life.
What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.
First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
~ Nassim Nicholas Taleb, New York Times
Summarized:
1. The event is a surprise (to the observer).
2. The event has a major impact.
3. After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it had been expected.
What happens when you still can't rationalize it even in hindsight?
Cognitive dissonance? Mental paralysis? PTSD?
If the person can't rationalize it, does that make the person irrational or the event?
What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.
First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
~ Nassim Nicholas Taleb, New York Times
Summarized:
1. The event is a surprise (to the observer).
2. The event has a major impact.
3. After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it had been expected.
What happens when you still can't rationalize it even in hindsight?
Cognitive dissonance? Mental paralysis? PTSD?
If the person can't rationalize it, does that make the person irrational or the event?
